Inflation risk is more likely from a US China trade war or conflict escalations in eastern Europe or the middle east. The interest rate was a pretty blunt instrument to combat COVID induced inflation; but it’s the only one the Fed has.

I’m concerned the stock markets are already overvalued; (edit: S&P500 used for these numbers) up 17% YTD over 85% on a 5 year mark… that’s borderline bubble; throwing more cheap money at it isn’t what we need at the moment; a more cautious return to lower rates is called for in my opinion. Give the markets time to digest and use the meeting minutes to signal likely further declines.

Larger cut than I think was appropriate at this time. Employment is cooling, but still positive. I wonder if some of the unpublished leading indicators show a more bearish picture…

A photo op that would be so easy to arrange…

Check out Fez if you haven’t already. Also Tunic does a great job of starting out basic & breaking precedent.

I’m enjoying what they released this year too. Beautiful People is now on my regular playlist.

There’S always time to take a break and catch your breath. You have sick days and personal days for a reason; use those to center yourself rather than running yourself into the ground.

You said above you’ve previously switched jobs; use that as a baseline to know that worst case isn’t crash and burn, but finding a new job (just like you’ve done several times before). If you’re killing yourself for a big corporate position… that’s a terrible reason to burn yourself out.

Refocus to something else you enjoy in life (family, friends, hobbies, whatever…). Use the CBT techniques that worked for you before. First just catch your breath, then start working back towards a better state. You did it before, you can do it again!

Hackers and hobbiests will persist despite any economics. Much of what they do I don’t see AI replacing, as AI creates based off of what it “knows”, which is mostly things it has previously ingested.

We are not (yet?) at the point where LLM does anything other than put together code snippets it’s seen or derived. If you ask it to find a new attack vector or code dissimilar to something it’s seen before the results are poor.

But the counterpoint every developer needs to keep in mind: AI will only get better. It’s not going to lose any of the current capabilities to generate code, and very likely will continue to expand on what it can accomplish. It’d be naive to assume it can never achieve these new capabilities… The question is just when & how much it costs (in terms of processing and storage).

The reality of Texas green energy is so detached from the political rhetoric from politicians… The state making the most wind energy has leaders in the capital demonizing it while the state finances (and citizens) clearly benefit. I wish the voters of Texas paid more attention and called out such obvious gaslighting :(

https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2017/01/13/cost-raising-child

Usually these costs are including education and childcare. In the US you can easily expect to pay around $1K / Month for full time child care between the ages of 6 months and 5 years (when they’ll start public school). Here’s a recent summary for major cities in Texas reflecting that amount: https://tootris.com/edu/blog/parents/child-care-in-texas-can-cost-up-to-10000/

That’s over $40K just in childcare costs before entering school. Now, many people don’t have to pay this because they have family (or a non-working spouse) who assist; but from a cost perspective it’s fair to include.

Add on to that food, clothing and such… between ages it’s easy to see how some estimates can reach over $200K through age 18.

The Ola one looks pretty dang nice; if it were available in the US I’d probably buy one just for random rides on nice weather days.

https://newatlas.com/motorcycles/ola-electric-roadster-motorcycles/

PPI at 0.1 brings us solidly back in line with pre-covid inflation numbers; with the 12-month at 2.2.

Core PPI still higher at 0.3 (3.3 for the 12 month period).

Certainly feels like the covid kinks have mostly worked out at this point and prices have stabilized… If there’s no shocks it’s looking much more likely the Fed lowers interest rates this quarter.

This is great momentum; especially if it helps down ballot Colin Allred defeat Ted Cruz for the senate. Some polling has him within 5 points (or even tied in a few polls earlier this year). It’s a bit of a stretch; but Texas is notorious for it’s low voter turnout. Moving a few % of this non-voting population to feel like their vote matters & get them to show up would be enough to shift these races!

VIX under 20 isn’t a warning… The stock market valuation indicator I agree with: stocks are a bit over valued right now. But over valued just means we need a correction… not whether it will be a mild or severe one.

What’s more troubling is the market reacting already to nonsense trump comments. From the caption in the linked article:

The latest market sell-off was partly triggered by former President Donald Trump’s comments on Taiwan and tariffs.

Does no one else remember the dumpster fire that was the markets jumping at every comment and policy flip-flop during his four year term? The same volatility indicator (VIX) regularly jumped over 20 after some dumb trade policy comment…

Prices are flat, or falling? https://www.newsweek.com/texas-housing-market-falters-prices-fall-sales-drop-1927108

Two different articles, two different numbers:

the statewide median home price showed nearly flat growth, rising 0.6% year over year to $345,000.

vs

The median sale price of a home in Texas was $354,800 in June, according to the real estate brokerage, down 0.94 percent year-over-year.

I guess we get used to all the announcements being “Biden-Harris” now?

Your vote is sending a signal to future elections. If Ohio has a 20-point red margin, it’s unlikely to get any attention from blue candidates. If it has a 5% margin, that changes, and suddenly the next campaign considers spending time & money to try and move the needle.

Remember the old Roman adage: “you’re not defeated until you admit defeat”. If you don’t vote: you’ve lost. If you vote, you might still lose that election but there’s a better chance to win in the future.

A bit of an elaboration on why water towers are used in combination with pumps. Pumps are great for moving a constant amount of water around at whatever rate the pump is designed for (e.g. a small pump will move something like 1 gallon per minute). a big enough pump (or series of smaller pumps) can cause that pumped water to consistently flow at that rate.

The problem is that people don’t use water at a constant rate. In the morning, several residents probably all run the shower at the same time. if too many people open the water tap at the same time, a pump will give each just a fraction of what they expect.

But a water tank high up supplies water by gravity, you could open a large number of water taps, and as long as the pipes from the tank are big enough they’d all have the same pressure as if just one opened.

The water is gradually pumped up to the tank no matter if people are using it or not, then when many people want water, they all get it at expected pressures and the tank start to empty. Eventually people close the taps, the tank will slowly start to fill again from the pump.

This same basic design is also how water towers supply water to many single story buildings, it’s not a unique engineering feat for skyscrapers, but an adjustment to fit somewhere within the building’s footprint.