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Cake day: July 6th, 2023

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  • I see two reasons for Russia to accept a cease fire : they are happy with what they took and want to keep it, so a cease fire is better because there is no treaty to give back anything ; or they want a bit of time to rebuild their supply of ammo and equipment before they go back at it.

    The first one would be if the US continue to support Ukraine. It would make it like the west is now supporting the war while Russia is asking for peace (totally hypocritical of course). Russia could stand on its positions and solidify them if it’s accepted. If Ukraine continue the war, it’ll be Ukraine on the offensive, which is a harder position.

    The second one would be if Ukraine loses US support and ask for a cease fire after the dombass is fully taken. Russia wouldn’t be armed to take it to rebuild it’s supply before going again. The risk here would be that nato or UN send forces in Ukraine, and if Europe take this time to increase its weapon production too, but those are unlikely on a short term.



  • I’ve seen a video about an ammunition being developed to be adapted to the underbarrel grenade launcher. Problem is that it needs to be ready if you any chance at it, and you only have one chance.

    Second problem is that most Russian soldiers are barely trained and equipped anyway, they’re just litteral canon fodder. Elite troops certainly have something to fight drones, but I suspect jamming would be the first layer. The video we see are most probably against the canon fodder.













  • Your mistake is to consider an election is a rational competition. It’s not. Not anymore, because medias make it impossible to know the truth. So it is more like a football match. People have the team they support, and for most nothing will change their mind because there’s too much propaganda. When almost everything is propaganda, you get to choose the reality you “prefer”.

    So the point of the campaign is more about convincing people to vote in order to defeat the opposing team. Or to persuade the other team to concede.



  • That’s blatantly wrong. There is a tradition in France for all parties to ally to prevent the fascists from accessing power, but that’s only an election alliance. It barely worked for the last election : the left does vote against the fascists every time, but some liberals refused to stand back in favor of some left candidates, and liberal voters largely refused to vote for the left because of the anti-left propaganda. This lead to the fascists making a third of the assemblé nationale.

    Now the president must choose a prime minister, but the left arrived first, and he refuses to let them get the power. So he waits for anyone to accept an alliance with the liberals which is not happening yet.

    Predictions are going that he will end choosing a PM that is fascist compatible rather than letting the left have any power in the executive.